Rupee slumped 69 paise to an all-time low of 92.18 against the US dollar in early trade on Wednesday, as a sharp spike in crude oil prices amid geopolitical tensions following the escalation of the US-Iran conflict weighed on investor sentiment.
'The West Asia or the Gulf crisis has shown that what we develop as national infrastructure when things are not as bad as they could be, we forget to plan for adversities.'
The Indian rupee weakened against the US dollar due to geopolitical tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy review.
Indian benchmark equity indices, Sensex and Nifty, rebounded on Wednesday, recovering intraday losses, primarily driven by strong fag-end buying and a significant rally in blue-chip Reliance Industries.
'When I look at India's relative valuations, these are by far the lowest I have seen in my 35-year career.' 'The relative 12-month trailing performance is among the weakest I have seen, and foreign investor positioning is at a 16-17 year low.'
Brent crude oil prices may rise to $110 a barrel in 2023, up nearly 33 per cent from the current levels, said analysts at Morgan Stanley, in a recent note. This is, however, lower than the peak level of nearly $127 touched earlier in 2022 as geopolitical concerns took centre stage amidrising demand. "Looking ahead, Brent oil price growth will decelerate even more in the coming quarters. "This comes even as our global oil strategist expects a rise in oil prices back to $110 a barrel by the second half of 2023.
'Mark Mobius's life was dedicated to investing.'
The demerger of Vedanta's four new entities - Vedanta Aluminium Metal, Vedanta Oil & Gas, Vedanta Power, and Vedanta Iron & Steel - has led to a 16% appreciation in aggregated market capitalisation, with Vedanta Aluminium Metal identified as a likely near-term top performer due to its scale, low production costs, and favourable commodities cycle.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has appealed to citizens to adopt austerity measures, including avoiding destination weddings abroad and reducing edible oil consumption, to mitigate the impact of the West Asia crisis on India's economy.
Benchmark indices tumbled about 2 per cent on Friday, capping one of the most turbulent weeks for domestic equities as investors fretted that the West Asian conflict could drag on for weeks or even months.
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) cap on banks' forex positions provided only a temporary boost to the rupee, with the currency quickly reversing gains and breaching the 95-per-dollar mark due to persistent underlying pressures.
Indian equity benchmarks, Sensex and Nifty, ended lower after a spectacular rally, with the Sensex tumbling 931 points, as renewed tensions in West Asia, particularly the risk to the ceasefire deal after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, dampened investor optimism.
The World Bank has affirmed India's strong position to withstand the current global energy shock, citing high foreign exchange reserves, fiscal space, and low inflation as key buffers supporting continued growth despite international headwinds.
The United States has temporarily lifted sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil already in transit to ease soaring global crude prices, making 140 million barrels available to the market.
A US-sanctioned tanker carrying Iranian crude oil has rerouted mid-voyage from its previously indicated destination of India to China, raising questions about payment issues and the future of India's Iranian oil imports.
India's exports recorded a 13.78 per cent increase to USD 43.56 billion in April, marking the highest monthly outbound shipments in over four years, primarily driven by petroleum products. However, the trade deficit widened to a three-month high of USD 28.38 billion due to a 10 per cent rise in imports.
A prolonged supply shock can transmit to lower incomes, and dampen confidence and sentiment, warns Aditi Nayar, chief economist, head-research and outreach, ICRA.
India's fertiliser subsidy bill for the current financial year (FY27) is projected to increase by approximately 20% due to surging global prices, primarily driven by the West Asia crisis, a senior official confirmed. Despite this, retail prices for urea and di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) will remain unchanged, ensuring adequate supply for the kharif season.
'PM Modi is trying to reduce the volume of fuel consumed instead of raising prices sharply.'
S&P Global Ratings has increased India's GDP growth forecast for the next fiscal year to 7.1 per cent, citing private consumption, investment, and exports as key drivers. However, the agency also cautioned that the conflict in the Middle East could strain India's fiscal position due to higher energy prices.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted some 20 per cent of the global flows but even if it opens, damages to production facilities in the region will take time to repair, points out Sunita Narain.
India has relocated the majority of its students from Tehran due to the escalating conflict in West Asia. The Indian embassy has arranged for their transportation, food, and accommodation outside of Tehran. An advisory remains in place for other Indian nationals in Iran to stay indoors and exercise caution.
Indian refiners are negotiating for additional crude cargoes from the US, Russia, and West Africa to ensure adequate supplies amid Middle East tensions. Refineries are maintaining normal processing rates and deferring maintenance to build reserves. The move comes as conflict impacts tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz, a key energy transit route.
India's Central government is likely to see its fertiliser subsidy bill double to a record 3.4 trillion in FY27, up from the Budget estimate of 1.7 trillion, due to surging global fertiliser prices exacerbated by the West Asia war. This significant increase, coupled with revenue losses from excise duty cuts for oil-marketing companies, is straining the government's fiscal space, though capital expenditure plans remain unchanged.
India has taken up the issue of high oil prices with producer nations and OPEC, demanding affordable rates, Minister of State for Petroleum and Natural Gas Rameswar Teli told the Lok Sabha on Monday. Petrol and diesel prices have shot up to record highs across the country after relentless price increases since early May. Petrol is retailing above Rs 100 a litre in more than a dozen states.
The United States has encouraged India to purchase Russian oil already at sea to mitigate supply shortages and price increases amid the West Asia conflict, according to Energy Secretary Chris Wright. This move is described as a short-term effort to stabilise the market without altering Washington's policy towards Russia.
Amidst a sharp run-up in gold and silver prices, investors are advised to rebalance their portfolios by booking partial profits in precious metals and reallocating to domestic equities and debt, according to financial experts.
Monthly gold imports have declined to 25-30 tonnes from 70-80 tonnes while recycling of old jewellery has increased following the recent hike in import duties.
Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty closed marginally lower due to profit-taking, following the Reserve Bank of India's decision to keep the repo rate unchanged while lowering its growth expectations for the current fiscal year and forecasting higher inflation.
A host of factors including the reform measures taken by the government and decline in global oil and commodity prices have led to lower inflation, the Finance Ministry said on Wednesday.
The ministry of finance is likely to assume crude oil price to remain within $85 per barrel while estimating subsidies for the Interim Budget 2024-25 (FY25), to be presented on February 1. Brent crude prices moved up on Thursday, ending at $78.9 per barrel. Crude oil and cooking gas prices, which move in tandem, impact fertiliser and cooking gas subsidies, constituting 53 per cent of the government's total subsidies.
The US has temporarily permitted India to accept Russian oil already on ships to ensure energy supplies amid the conflict with Iran. This short-term measure is not expected to significantly benefit Russia financially.
A Monaco-based fuel technology company, FOWE Eco Solutions, claims its patented Cavitech fuel emulsion technology can help industries slash fuel consumption, reduce emissions, and improve equipment performance by using water in fuel.
A Monaco-based fuel technology company, FOWE Eco Solutions, claims its patented Cavitech fuel emulsion technology can help industries slash fuel consumption, reduce emissions, and improve equipment performance by using water.
A Monaco-based fuel technology company, FOWE Eco Solutions, claims its patented Cavitech fuel emulsion technology can help India reduce fuel consumption, emissions, and improve equipment performance by using water in a fuel-oil-water emulsion.
Historically, India was a major buyer of Iranian crude, importing significant volumes of Iranian light and heavy grades due to strong refinery compatibility and favourable commercial terms.
India's state-run oil marketing companies (OMCs) are projected to incur under-recoveries of approximately Rs 80,000 crore on liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) sales in FY27 if current loss levels persist, according to rating agency Icra.
US President Donald Trump has threatened to target Iran's civilian energy infrastructure, including power plants, oil wells and Kharg Island, if Tehran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
India summoned the Iranian envoy after two Indian vessels had to reverse course in the Strait of Hormuz following an incident of firing by Iran's Revolutionary Guards.
Foreign investors have withdrawn over Rs 88,000 crore from Indian equities this month, driven by geopolitical tensions, a weak rupee, and concerns about rising crude oil prices.
